2026 Spring Statement - the economic picture

03 Mar 2026

Within her Spring Statement speech, Chancellor Rachel Reeves revealed that the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR's) latest economic forecast shows that inflation, borrowing and debt interest are falling while investment is rising.

Ms Reeves outlined updated growth forecasts from the OBR: growth is expected to be 1.1% in 2026; 1.6% in 2027 and 2028; and 1.5% in 2029 and 2030.

The OBR's forecast revealed that borrowing is down by nearly £18 billion compared to Autumn 2025 and headroom against the stability rule has increased to almost £24 billion.

The OBR's forecast shows GDP per person is now set to grow more than was expected in the Budget – with growth of 5.6% over the Parliament. The UK economy grew faster than any other European country in the G7 in 2025, the OBR also revealed.

During the Spring Statement speech, the Chancellor said: 'Mr Speaker, this government has the right economic plan for our country: a plan that is even more important in a world that in the last few days has become yet more uncertain.'